Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.37, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price77.81 USD
Fair value77.45
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Markdown77.81+0.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-22Read Accumulation80.68-3.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-15Read Markdown80.84-3.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% rise in 10 weeks
2026-08-06Read Markup75.25+3.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. holds its Markdown at $77.81. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days
Price at the screen
$77.81
Valuation
58.46 trailing · 27.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
71.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 71.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.42%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.58%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.25%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Madison Square Garden Entertainment's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 72% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today MSGE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Live Events Feel Magical But Numbers Do Not
Picture a sold-out night at the Garden with roaring crowds and bright lights. The thrill stops at the turnstile once you check the books. Madison Square Garden Entertainment trades at 29.8 times forward earnings while revenue edges up just 2 percent a year and net margins sit at 5 percent. Our fair value sits at 67.78 dollars against the current 75.25 dollar price, leaving no margin of safety and a clear none rating on opportunity.
We pass for straightforward valuation reasons. A 170 percent return on equity looks impressive on paper yet fails to offset the thin profit margins and modest top-line growth. Analysts may cluster around an 80 dollar target, but the gap to our assessed worth is real and the unknown moat adds no comfort. The ethical screen clears, yet that alone does not turn an expensive stock into an attractive one.
High returns on equity can fade quickly in live entertainment when event costs rise or audiences shift. Currency and cyclical demand swings sit outside management control and could pressure results further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MSGE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Markdown$77.81+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown · changed$77.81-3.6%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-10-15Markdown · changed$80.84-0.4%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-10-02Markup$81.20+2.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-09-05Markup$79.49+5.6%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$75.25+2.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-18Accumulation$73.49+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-03Accumulation$73.49+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$73.49Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
