An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Merchants Bancorp operates as the diversified bank holding company in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $54.06
Merchants Bancorp holds its Markup at $54.06.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days
Price
$54.06
Valuation
10.86 trailing · 9.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.16
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$54.06
10.86 P/E · 9.03 fwd
Our fair value
$64.00
18% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$56.50
+5% to current
Target low $49.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $64.00
▲ current $54.06 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$54.06
you are here
Conservative
$64.00
+18%
Analyst avg
$56.50
+5%
Our fair value
$64.00
+18%
Analyst high
$64.00
+18%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Revenue growth
37.10%
Profit margin
42.47%
Analyst consensus
Hold · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited keyword in sector/industry: bankFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Banks fail our screen before numbers matter
Picture a Midwest family closing on an apartment block and the financing running through a regional lender. That flow sits in a sector our ethical screen has already ruled out on principle, regardless of the headline figures. Merchants Bancorp shows 16% revenue growth, a 39% profit margin and an 8.8 times forward earnings multiple, yet none of those change the first filter.
We pass for the straightforward reason that the business is a bank. The 10% return on equity and limited analyst coverage do not alter the sector exclusion. A modest gap to our internal fair value of 58 dollars is irrelevant when the activity itself sits outside the mandate.
Valuations this low often signal cyclical earnings peaks rather than bargains, and regional lenders carry extra sensitivity to interest rates and credit cycles. The ethical screen simply removes the name from consideration before those questions arise. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MBIN trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $52. Entered 2026-08-05 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-05Markup · changed$55.18+10.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Distribution$50.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Distribution$50.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$50.11Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$45.79
+8.3%
·
$1,083
+8.3%
2 months
$47.22
+5.0%
·
$1,050
+5.0%
3 months
$42.15
+17.6%
$0.11
$1,179
+17.9%
6 months
$35.77
+38.6%
$0.21
$1,392
+39.2%
1 year
$32.57
+52.2%
$0.41
$1,534
+53.4%
2 years
$39.67
+25.0%
$0.78
$1,269
+26.9%
3 years
$26.38
+87.9%
$1.11
$1,921
+92.1%
5 years
$26.27
+88.7%
$1.65
$1,950
+95.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MBIN does next, these words stay.
Merchants Bancorp · MBIN · Markup · $54.06
Recorded 2026-08-06 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
