NAS10027,088+1.72%S&P7,415+0.84%GOLD$4,061−1.27%BTC$75,685−0.34%VIX24.44−13.27%latest tape · as of 16:01 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings Inc
LOCO · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $505M · 4,034 employees
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.46 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 16:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price16.46 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.70, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.46 USD
Fair value17.18
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup15.82+4.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-14Read Accumulation15.22+8.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 12 days
2026-10-02Read Markdown14.25+15.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 14% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-04Read Distribution16.59-0.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% rise in 9 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc holds its Markup at $16.46. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 52 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 52 days
Price at the screen
$16.46
Valuation
14.54 trailing · 13.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.87%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
El Pollo Loco's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 40% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today LOCO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $17.18 fair value, none competitive moat, 5.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.2% discount to the base estimate.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LOCO trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup$16.47+5.9%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup$15.55+1.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$15.30+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$15.30+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$15.30+6.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$14.42+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$14.42+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$14.42-8.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$15.82+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-10-21Accumulation$15.82+3.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.