Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.49, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price3.52 USD
Fair value4.75
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markdown4.95-28.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 33% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-04Read Markup7.36-52.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 42% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation5.20-32.3% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lucid Group, Inc. holds its Distribution at $3.52. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$3.52
Valuation
N/A trailing · -0.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.82%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.01%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
11.56%
Below 5%
11.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Lucid Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +99% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lucid EV dreams hit the cyclical trap
Picture a shiny new electric saloon cruising the highway while the company behind it loses two pounds for every pound of revenue it books. Lucid shows twenty percent revenue growth yet posts a two hundred and forty percent negative profit margin and ninety eight percent negative return on equity. The market prices it at a forward multiple of negative one point five times, but in autos that number usually signals peak losses rather than a bargain.
We pass because the shares sit right at our seven dollar fair value with no margin of safety and the entire opportunity rating is none. Ten analysts cluster around a hold rating with the same seven dollar median target. Ethical screens clear, yet the business remains a cash burner in a brutally cyclical industry where volume can swing hard with interest rates and incentives.
Low multiples in car making often mark the top of the cycle rather than the bottom. Revenue growth looks decent until the next downturn arrives and losses widen again. The setup offers no edge worth taking.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LCID trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$3.21-4.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-18Markdown$3.36-18.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 18.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-11Markdown$4.13-4.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-02Markdown$4.30-13.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$4.95-32.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 32.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-08-04Markup · changed$7.36+41.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 41.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Accumulation$5.20+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Accumulation$5.20+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$5.20Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
