Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-08
Options put/call open interest 0.46, read 2026-10-16
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price295.51 USD
Fair value328.44
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markup295.51+0.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-11Read Distribution293.20+0.8% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markdown313.70-5.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 7 weeks
2026-08-01Read Markup332.98-11.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Home Depot (The) holds its Markup at $295.51. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 66 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-14
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 66 days
Price at the screen
$295.51
Valuation
20.68 trailing · 18.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Home Depot (The)'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-20. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $328.44 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 32 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home Improvement Giant Struggles with Debt
Imagine you're about to renovate your home. You walk into Home Depot, aisles filled with tools and materials for every project. But behind the scenes, the company is carrying a heavy debt load that's weighing it down. With a debt ratio that fails our ethical screen, Home Depot is struggling to keep afloat financially, a stark contrast to the robust selection of items it offers.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we're passing, is multifaceted. Despite a forward P/E of 21, which suggests reasonable valuation, the stock's price sits above our fair value estimate of $322.89 by a slim 4%, indicating a lack of margin of safety. Coupled with a 6% revenue growth and an ROE of 104%, the numbers might seem compelling, but the debt issue is a glaring red flag.
Risk factors are significant, primarily due to the company's narrow moat and the ethical failing on debt ratio. The market consensus is bullish, with a median target of $379, but with a debt-ridden balance sheet, the potential for instability is high. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-18Markup · changed$295.51+0.8%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
2026-10-02Markdown$293.20-6.5%Entry 13
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$313.70-11.2%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
2026-08-18Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
