Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.50, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price106.45 USD
Fair value168.29
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution116.85-8.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-08-31Read Markup121.95-12.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-07-31Read Distribution124.03-14.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup140.60-24.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Granite Construction Incorporated holds its Distribution at $106.45. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$106.45
Valuation
N/A trailing · 13.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.10%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
24.48%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Granite Construction's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 37% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when GVA's ethical verdict changes
Today GVA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 58.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +67% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Road Builders Grow Fast But Profits Stay Thin
Every time a crew resurfaces a highway or repairs a bridge in California or Texas, the economics depend on winning bids that leave little room for error. Granite Construction is delivering 30% revenue growth and a solid 20% ROE, yet the business converts that into just a 4% profit margin at a forward multiple of 16.2 times. The numbers show real activity, but the thin bottom line leaves little cushion when costs move.
The ethical screen clears, which is why the name reaches this stage, yet our opportunity rating stays at none. Analyst targets sit higher at 172 dollars against the current 124, but the sector's bidding cycles and input inflation make any apparent margin of safety harder to trust on paper alone.
Infrastructure work is inherently cyclical, so a mid-teens multiple on peak activity is more warning than bargain. Currency or policy shifts can quickly compress those returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GVA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Distribution$106.45-2.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$109.51+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$109.51+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$109.51+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$109.51+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$109.51+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$109.51+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$109.51-3.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$113.15-3.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $167.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
