Grifols, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and marketing of plasma-derived medicines in the United States, Canada, Spain, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
7.55 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Grifols, S.A. holds its Markdown at $7.55. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$7.55
Valuation
9.81 trailing · 5.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.83%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.45%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 55.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap plasma stock masks falling revenues and thin returns
Grifols collects and processes blood plasma into medicines that treat immune disorders and other serious conditions. The shares sit at just 5 times forward earnings with a 61 percent gap to our fair value estimate, yet revenue has already dropped 5 percent and returns on equity remain stuck at 6 percent.
We pass because the numbers show a business that is shrinking, not compounding. Low profit margins and an unknown competitive edge leave little room for the kind of durable cash flow that would justify stepping in, even after the ethical screen clears.
Risk sits mainly around execution in a fragmented plasma market and the chance that current earnings already reflect peak volumes rather than a lasting floor. Two analysts still see upside to 11 dollars, but the flat growth trajectory keeps us on the sidelines. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Spain and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GRFS trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Spain). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$8.09+11.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 11.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$7.27-4.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Accumulation$7.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Accumulation$7.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$7.64Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
