Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Bristol Myers Squibb BMY

Outside both standards

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide.

The label
Accumulation

read at $62.09

Bristol Myers Squibb holds its Accumulation at $62.09.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseAccumulation
Quantitative stateConsolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price$62.09
Valuation17.39 trailing · 10.02 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 10.0
Beta0.24

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $75.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 2.60% revenue growth.

Read at
$62.09
17.39 P/E · 10.02 fwd
Our fair value
$75.00
21% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$63.00
+1% to current
Target low $40.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $75.00
▲ current $62.09 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$77.9$56.8$35.7TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONConservative$75.00 +34%Our fair value$75.00 +34%Analyst high$75.00 +34%Analyst avg$63.00 +13%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$62.09
you are here
Conservative
$75.00
+21%
Analyst avg
$63.00
+1%
Our fair value
$75.00
+21%
Analyst high
$75.00
+21%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.

Revenue growth2.60%
Profit margin15.01%
Debt to equity230.97
Analyst consensusBuy · 24 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Fail
  • Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is 22.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Debt Shadow Blocks Pharma Bargain Appeal

When patients rely on steady supplies of cancer and heart drugs from a big US maker, the business feels solid enough. Yet we pass on Bristol Myers Squibb. Revenue edges up just 3 percent a year, the forward multiple sits at 9.8 times, and the ethical screen flags a debt ratio that fails our test.

The moderate moat and 39 percent return on equity look attractive next to a 15 percent profit margin. Analysts still lean buy with a 63 dollar median target. Our own fair value sits higher at 75 dollars, a 24 percent margin of safety on paper. None of that overrides the debt issue.

High leverage in a sector facing patent cliffs and pricing pressure creates real downside that low multiples often hide. The numbers show steady cash flow but not enough to clear the ethical bar. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E10.0x
expensive even after accounting for its growth
Trailing P/E17.4x
reasonably valued
Revenue growth2.6%
slow but positive growth
Profit margin15.0%
healthy profit margins
Return on equity38.7%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity2.31
heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens
Current ratio1.42
adequate liquidity, worth monitoring
Beta0.24
barely tracks the market's swings
Market cap$126.8B
Employees32,500

The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on BMY

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in BMY's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

BMY trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-30 · Accumulation

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-30 Accumulation $62.09 +0.0% Entry 10

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-28 Accumulation $62.09 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-27 Accumulation $62.09 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-26 Accumulation $62.09 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-25 Accumulation · changed $62.09 +2.2% Entry 6

The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-24 Markup $60.74 +0.0% Entry 5

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-23 Markup $60.74 +6.1% Entry 4

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-18 Markup $57.27 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $63. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

2026-07-03 Markup $57.27 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $57.27 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · BMY
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-04-01 Elkins David V EVP, CFO Sale 30,000 $1,850,016
2025-09-02 Elkins David V EVP, CFO Sale 56,000 $2,650,480
2025-08-02 Short Bartie Wendy EVP, Corporate Affairs Sale 378 $16,719
2026-05-01 LENKOWSKY ADAM Officer 1,373 ·
2026-04-01 SHANAHAN KARIN Officer 3,307 ·
2026-04-01 ELKINS DAVID VINCENT Chief Financial Officer 30,000 $1,850,016
2026-03-10 PLENGE ROBERT M Officer 17,501 ·
2026-03-10 MEYERS GREGORY SCOTT Chief Technology Officer 25,892 ·
2026-03-10 SHANAHAN KARIN Officer 25,501 ·
2026-03-10 LENKOWSKY ADAM Officer 24,071 ·

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming BMY
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
7 May2026 Mike Kelly Republican sell 15K–50K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $55.67 +0.3% · $1,003 +0.3%
2 months $58.62 -4.7% · $953 -4.7%
3 months $58.35 -4.3% $0.63 $968 -3.2%
6 months $50.09 +11.5% $1.26 $1,140 +14.0%
1 year $47.59 +17.4% $2.50 $1,226 +22.6%
2 years $38.64 +44.6% $4.94 $1,573 +57.3%
3 years $56.40 -1.0% $7.28 $1,119 +11.9%
5 years $55.08 +1.4% $11.56 $1,224 +22.4%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BMY does next, these words stay.

Bristol Myers Squibb · BMY · Accumulation · $62.09
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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