An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Forgent Power Solutions, Inc designs and manufactures electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid and energy-intensive industrial facilities.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $37.72
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. holds its Distribution at $37.72.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price
$37.72
Valuation
1,886.00 trailing · 32.27 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 98.0
Beta
N/A
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $41.69 fair value, weak competitive moat, 103.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$37.72
1,886.00 P/E · 32.27 fwd
Our fair value
$41.69
11% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$60.00
+59% to current
Target low $51.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $73.00
▲ current $37.72 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$37.72
you are here
Conservative
$41.69
+11%
Analyst avg
$60.00
+59%
Our fair value
$41.69
+11%
Analyst high
$73.00
+94%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
103.40%
Profit margin
2.17%
Debt to equity
121.45
Analyst consensus
None · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 4.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Power gear for data centres, priced for perfection
Picture every new data hall or grid upgrade needing transfer switches and generator cabinets. Forgent supplies that kit and revenue is doubling, yet the shares trade at 34 times forward earnings with just a 2 percent profit margin and a weak moat.
We pass. The modest discount to our fair value of 41.69 still leaves the business expensive once you strip away the hype around data-centre spend, and the thin margins give little room if growth slows.
Analysts see 60 dollars ahead, but that target assumes the current cycle lasts and margins expand sharply. History shows electrical-equipment makers rarely sustain those multiples when orders normalise. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
FPS trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 45.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 63%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56. Entered 2026-07-30 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 45.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 63%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Markup$59.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 63%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Markup$59.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (98). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$59.13Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (98). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · FPS
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-03-30
NEOS PARTNERS LP
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
10,783,205
·
2026-03-30
NEOS PARTNERS LP
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
34,500,000
$964,965,000
2026-02-09
NEOS PARTNERS LP
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2,487,964
·
2026-02-09
NEOS PARTNERS LP
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
