Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.60, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price6.20 USD
Fair value7.50
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-14Read Markup5.81+6.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-10-02Read Markdown5.81+6.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 22% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution7.48-17.1% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Flowers Foods, Inc. holds its Markup at $6.20. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$6.20
Valuation
22.96 trailing · 9.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
94.40%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 94.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
16.27%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 16.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.33%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Flowers Foods,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 94% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $7.50 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday bread seller trips on thin margins and debt
Walk into any supermarket and the loaves move every day, yet Flowers Foods turns that steady demand into just a 1% profit margin and 5% ROE. Revenue edges up 7%, but the business carries a weak moat and forward earnings sit on a 10.2x multiple that still fails to compensate for the poor returns on capital.
We pass because the ethical screen flags excessive debt and the underlying economics look unattractive. Low margins and limited competitive protection leave little room for error, even when the shares trade below our fair value. Defensive staples should deliver steadier cash generation than this.
High leverage adds real pressure when input costs swing, and the weak moat gives competitors easy ground to take share. The combination of thin profitability and the debt breach outweighs any apparent discount. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FLO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Markup$5.97+2.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-14Markup · changed$5.810.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$5.81-22.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 22.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-08-29Distribution$7.46-12.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-30Distribution$8.49+13.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 13.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Distribution$7.48+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Distribution$7.48+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$7.48Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
