First Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides banking products and services for individuals and businesses.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
65.04 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
First Bancorp holds its Markdown at $65.04. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$65.04
Valuation
20.20 trailing · 12.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why This Regional Bank Fails Our Screen
Picture a branch on a quiet American high street where locals deposit pay cheques and small firms borrow for new trucks. First Bancorp does exactly that, posting 14% revenue growth and a 31% profit margin that looks tidy on paper. Yet the business sits in a sector our ethical screen rejects outright, so we pass regardless of the numbers.
The shares trade at 13.1 times forward earnings with an 8% return on equity and a modest 9% gap to our fair value estimate. Analyst chatter calls it a buy at a $67 target, but none of that moves the needle once the sector rule bites. Unknown competitive edge and low returns on equity only reinforce the decision to step aside.
Banks carry hidden cyclical and regulatory risks that can turn a low multiple into a value trap when credit losses rise. Currency swings and policy shifts add further pressure that the headline figures do not capture. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FBNC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-07-28Markdown$64.43+4.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-07-18Markdown$61.78+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-07-03Markdown$61.78+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$61.78Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
