An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Denison Mines Corp.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $2.82
Denison Mines Corp. holds its Markdown at $2.82.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price
$2.82
Valuation
N/A trailing · -69.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.62
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Passes both standards. It clears the values screen under our stricter asset-based reading and under the more widely used market-value standard alike — the two agree.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$2.82
N/A P/E · -69.80 fwd
Our fair value
$3.81
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$4.87
+73% to current
Target low $4.13Analyst target rangeTarget high $5.62
▲ current $2.82 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$2.82
you are here
Conservative
$3.81
+35%
Analyst avg
$4.87
+73%
Our fair value
$3.81
+35%
Analyst high
$5.62
+99%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-19.60%
Profit margin
0.00%
Debt to equity
280.62
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Uranium explorer stuck in a commodity trap
Picture a Canadian miner chasing yellowcake through the Athabasca basin while prices swing like a pendulum. Denison Mines shows none of the operating traction that would justify stepping in now. Forward earnings sit at a negative multiple, revenue has dropped 20 percent, margins sit at zero and return on equity has sunk to minus 74 percent. The cyclical label alone turns the apparent discount into a warning rather than an opportunity.
The business model depends on future uranium demand that has yet to translate into cash flow or positive returns. Low or negative multiples in this sector usually mark peak-cycle earnings or simply the absence of earnings, not a bargain. With an unknown moat and opportunity rating at none, the numbers do not clear our threshold despite the ethical screen passing.
Currency swings, permitting delays and sudden shifts in nuclear policy add further layers of uncertainty that the current financials cannot absorb. The gap to any notional fair value remains unconvincing in the absence of improving fundamentals. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in DNN's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
DNN trades on NYSE American (the company is based in Canada). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $5. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$3.06+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-03Markdown$3.06+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$3.06Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$3.85
-27.0%
·
$730
-27.0%
2 months
$3.56
-21.1%
·
$789
-21.1%
3 months
$4.01
-29.9%
·
$701
-29.9%
6 months
$2.76
+1.8%
·
$1,018
+1.8%
1 year
$1.58
+77.9%
·
$1,779
+77.9%
2 years
$2.12
+32.6%
·
$1,326
+32.6%
3 years
$1.22
+130.3%
·
$2,303
+130.3%
5 years
$1.41
+99.3%
·
$1,993
+99.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever DNN does next, these words stay.
Denison Mines Corp. · DNN · Markdown · $2.82
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically