An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Cipher Digital Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates industrial-scale data centers for bitcoin mining and high-performance compute (HPC) hosting in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $16.62
Cipher Digital Inc holds its Distribution at $16.62.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days
Price
$16.62
Valuation
N/A trailing · 72.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
3.22
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$16.62
N/A P/E · 72.26 fwd
Our fair value
$16.04
4% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$30.00
+81% to current
Target low $22.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $69.00
▲ current $16.62 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$16.62
you are here
Conservative
$16.04
-3%
Analyst avg
$30.00
+81%
Our fair value
$16.04
-3%
Analyst high
$69.00
+315%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
-43.00%
Profit margin
0.00%
Debt to equity
950.56
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 17 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 64.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purity8.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Bitcoin Data Centres Trading Above Fair Value
Picture a warehouse full of humming servers chasing bitcoin rewards one month and sitting idle the next when power costs spike or coin prices drop. Cipher Digital runs exactly those industrial-scale sites, now trying to pivot some capacity toward hyperscaler HPC tenants, yet revenue has already fallen 29 percent while the profit margin sits at zero and return on equity has plunged to minus 122 percent.
The market prices the shares at 36.6 times forward earnings despite the narrow moat and negative growth, leaving the stock two percent above our fair value with no margin of safety. Analyst targets sit much higher, yet the numbers show a business still burning cash and dependent on volatile crypto economics rather than durable demand.
Risk sits in the combination of cyclical bitcoin swings, heavy capital needs, and an unproven shift into HPC hosting that has yet to restore profits. Ethical screen clears, but the financial picture does not justify ownership at current levels.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in CIFR's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 28.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 57% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 429%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. Entered 2026-07-24 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Accumulation$17.56-28.3%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 28.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 57% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 429%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-18Accumulation$24.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 57% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 429%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-03Accumulation$24.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$24.50Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$20.28
+5.9%
·
$1,059
+5.9%
2 months
$16.53
+30.0%
·
$1,300
+30.0%
3 months
$13.71
+56.7%
·
$1,567
+56.7%
6 months
$18.88
+13.8%
·
$1,138
+13.8%
1 year
$4.06
+429.1%
·
$5,291
+429.1%
2 years
$4.18
+413.9%
·
$5,139
+413.9%
3 years
$2.30
+833.9%
·
$9,339
+833.9%
5 years
$10.01
+114.6%
·
$2,146
+114.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CIFR does next, these words stay.
Cipher Digital Inc · CIFR · Distribution · $16.62
Recorded 2026-08-13 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
