An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building material products to the construction industry.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $354.53
TopBuild Corp holds its Markdown at $354.53.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price
$354.53
Valuation
19.92 trailing · 17.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.83
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$354.53
19.92 P/E · 17.04 fwd
Our fair value
$341.20
4% premium
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$354.53
you are here
Conservative
$312.07
-12%
Our fair value
$341.20
-4%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Revenue growth
17.20%
Profit margin
8.95%
Debt to equity
130.07
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 47.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Insulation Supplier Trades Past Fair Value
Picture a builder fitting insulation into a new house on the edge of town. TopBuild sits behind many of those jobs, moving materials through installation crews and a distribution network. Revenue is rising 17 percent a year, return on equity reaches 22 percent, margins sit at 9 percent and the ethical screen is clear, yet the shares sit at 354 dollars against a fair value of 341.
We pass for the simple reason that investors get no margin of safety. The forward multiple of 17 times earnings prices in steady housing demand on a business with only a narrow moat, and the opportunity rating stays at none.
Housing spend moves with interest rates and economic swings, and a narrow competitive edge leaves room for rivals to take share when volumes drop. At this price the numbers do not cover that exposure.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $471. Entered 2026-07-23 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-23Markdown$354.53-13.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $471.
2026-07-18Markdown$411.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $471.
2026-07-03Markdown$411.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$411.08Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming BLD
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
2 Jun2026
John Curtis
Republican
sell
1K–15K
1 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$424.63
-7.9%
·
$921
-7.9%
2 months
$394.37
-0.8%
·
$992
-0.8%
3 months
$364.83
+7.3%
·
$1,073
+7.3%
6 months
$444.02
-11.9%
·
$881
-11.9%
1 year
$309.54
+26.4%
·
$1,264
+26.4%
2 years
$403.04
-2.9%
·
$971
-2.9%
3 years
$228.96
+70.9%
·
$1,709
+70.9%
5 years
$193.06
+102.7%
·
$2,027
+102.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BLD does next, these words stay.
TopBuild Corp · BLD · Markdown · $354.53
Recorded 2026-08-13 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
