An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Argan, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, maintenance, project development, and technical consulting services to the power generation market in the United Stat…
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $579.87
Argan, Inc. holds its Distribution at $579.87.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price
$579.87
Valuation
51.00 trailing · 35.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.56
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$579.87
51.00 P/E · 35.69 fwd
Our fair value
$512.47
12% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$700.00
+21% to current
Target low $500.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $860.00
▲ current $579.87 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$579.87
you are here
Conservative
$450.00
-22%
Analyst avg
$700.00
+21%
Our fair value
$512.47
-12%
Analyst high
$860.00
+48%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
50.20%
Profit margin
15.48%
Debt to equity
2.02
Analyst consensus
Buy · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Power builder races ahead of our fair value
Every time a grid needs a new gas plant or data centre backup, Argan steps in to design and deliver it. The numbers look strong on paper, with revenue jumping 50 percent and return on equity at 39 percent. Yet the shares sit 7 percent above our calculated worth at a forward multiple of 33.9 times, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none.
The business clears our ethical screen cleanly and shows solid 15 percent profit margins. Five analysts still cluster around a 700 dollar median target. We see the same operating strength but cannot ignore the gap between price and our 512 dollar fair value.
Construction work remains lumpy and exposed to energy project cycles, while the moat stays unknown. High multiples can compress quickly when orders slow. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AGX trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. Entered 2026-07-20 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Accumulation$551.26-14.1%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473.
2026-07-18Accumulation$641.68+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473.
2026-07-16Accumulation$641.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473.
2026-07-03Accumulation$641.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$641.68Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming AGX
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
30 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
15K–50K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$683.52
-13.4%
·
$867
-13.4%
2 months
$603.35
-1.8%
$0.50
$982
-1.8%
3 months
$458.93
+29.1%
$0.50
$1,292
+29.2%
6 months
$329.92
+79.5%
$1.00
$1,798
+79.8%
1 year
$208.25
+184.4%
$1.88
$2,853
+185.3%
2 years
$76.16
+677.6%
$3.30
$7,820
+682.0%
3 years
$36.61
+1,517.6%
$4.45
$16,298
+1,529.8%
5 years
$43.69
+1,255.6%
$6.45
$13,704
+1,270.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AGX does next, these words stay.
Argan, Inc. · AGX · Distribution · $579.87
Recorded 2026-07-30 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
