NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Argan, Inc.
AGX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.8B · 1,409 employees
Argan, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, maintenance, project development, and technical consulting services to the power generation market in the United Stat…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
413.74 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Argan, Inc. holds its Markdown at $413.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$413.74
Valuation
32.73 trailing · 25.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.57
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
46.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 46.8% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
39.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 39.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +41% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Power builder races ahead of our fair value
Every time a grid needs a new gas plant or data centre backup, Argan steps in to design and deliver it. The numbers look strong on paper, with revenue jumping 50 percent and return on equity at 39 percent. Yet the shares sit 7 percent above our calculated worth at a forward multiple of 33.9 times, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none.
The business clears our ethical screen cleanly and shows solid 15 percent profit margins. Five analysts still cluster around a 700 dollar median target. We see the same operating strength but cannot ignore the gap between price and our 512 dollar fair value.
Construction work remains lumpy and exposed to energy project cycles, while the moat stays unknown. High multiples can compress quickly when orders slow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown$450.46+0.0%Entry 14
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown$450.46+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markdown$450.46+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markdown$450.46+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markdown · changed$450.46+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Distribution$450.46+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Distribution$450.46+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Distribution$450.46-23.8%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 23.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473.
2026-07-20Accumulation$551.26-14.1%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 71% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 184%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $473.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
