Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price79.71 USD
Fair value150.90
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-23Read Markdown105.74-24.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 12% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation119.63-33.4% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-27Read Distribution118.07-32.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 21% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup148.83-46.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Everus Construction Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $79.71. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$79.71
Valuation
16.04 trailing · 12.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
54.35%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 54.3% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Everus Construction Group,'s business is fine, but its receivables are about 54% of its assets, just over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 47% discount to our $150.90 fair value, 33.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 47.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $150.90, with a range of $136.80 to $159.42, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Construction contractor offers scant margin of safety
Every time a utility needs new transmission lines or a factory wants its electrical systems upgraded, Everus steps in to handle the work across its electrical and transmission segments. Yet the numbers show little reason to get involved. Revenue is expanding at 25 percent and return on equity sits at 39 percent, but the shares already trade just 3 percent below our fair value with a forward multiple of 26 times earnings.
The business clears our ethical screen and carries a buy rating from five analysts whose median target sits at 172 dollars. Still, profit margins remain thin at 6 percent and the moat is unproven, leaving the valuation looking full for a contractor exposed to project timing and input costs.
Cyclical construction work can deliver peak earnings that later fade, turning a seemingly reasonable multiple into a trap rather than a bargain. Limited upside and an unknown competitive edge outweigh the growth figures on offer. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ECG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markdown$102.63+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$102.63+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$102.63-5.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$108.06+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$108.06+13.9%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$94.91-10.2%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$105.74+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$105.74+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown · changed$105.74-10.7%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-16Accumulation$118.36-1.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 127%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.