BABA · NYSE (ADR) · Market cap $270.7B · 131,462 employees
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Not yet scored
112.82
At the last full screen 2026-06-14
Screened 2026-06-14 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Alibaba Group Holding holds its Distribution at $112.82. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-06-14
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$112.82
Valuation
17.36 trailing · 12.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE: it trades at roughly a 74% discount to our $196.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 2.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-06-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 74.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 40 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +69% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-06-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business: a narrow moat. It trades close to our $196.62 fair value, so the easy discount is gone; you would be paying up for the quality.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BABA trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$112.82+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$112.82+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$112.82+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$112.82+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Accumulation$112.82+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Accumulation$112.82+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Accumulation$112.82+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup · changed$112.82+0.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-18Distribution$112.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$137.30
-15.6%
·
$844
-15.6%
2 months
$127.33
-9.0%
·
$910
-9.0%
3 months
$134.20
-13.6%
·
$864
-13.6%
6 months
$156.90
-26.1%
·
$739
-26.1%
1 year
$119.85
-3.3%
$2.00
$984
-1.6%
2 years
$76.32
+51.9%
$3.66
$1,566
+56.6%
3 years
$81.20
+42.7%
$4.66
$1,485
+48.5%
5 years
$200.99
-42.3%
$4.66
$600
-40.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BABA does next, these words stay.
Alibaba Group Holding · BABA · Distribution · $112.82
Recorded 2026-06-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
