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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Alibaba Group Holding
BABA · NYSE (ADR) · Market cap $277.7B · 131,462 employees
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Not yet scored
111.13
Price as of 15 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-15 · the tape above runs as of 13:28 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price111.13 at the 15 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingFair value, current read markdown
Ethical screenNot yet scored
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.53)
Last reviewed15 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 111.13 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 196.62, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.53, read 2026-10-18
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price111.13
Fair value196.62
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Accumulation111.13+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown115.75-4.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-25Read Markup112.82-1.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-08-21Read Accumulation112.82-1.5% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alibaba Group Holding holds its Markdown at $111.13. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$111.13
Valuation
17.81 trailing · 12.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
Alibaba clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-20. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads FAIR VALUE: it trades at roughly a 77% discount to our $196.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 2.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 76.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 40 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +72% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business: a narrow moat. It trades close to our $196.62 fair value, so the easy discount is gone; you would be paying up for the quality.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BABA trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-11Markdown$115.75+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$115.75+2.6%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-08-28Markup$112.82+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$112.82+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$112.82+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$112.82+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Accumulation$112.82+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Accumulation$112.82+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Accumulation$112.82+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
