An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, distributes home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $5.77
AdaptHealth Corp. holds its Distribution at $5.77.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-12
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price
$5.77
Valuation
N/A trailing · -45.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.46
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$5.77
N/A P/E · -45.08 fwd
Our fair value
$10.00
73% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$10.00
+73% to current
Target low $7.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $10.00
▲ current $5.77 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$5.77
you are here
Conservative
$7.00
+21%
Analyst avg
$10.00
+73%
Our fair value
$10.00
+73%
Analyst high
$10.00
+73%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
12.70%
Profit margin
-6.79%
Debt to equity
148.97
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 7 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 44.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Home gear supplier bleeds cash despite low multiple
Picture a patient in Ohio needing a new CPAP machine or oxygen tank delivered to the door. AdaptHealth handles that supply chain, yet revenue is rising only 5 percent while the firm posts a negative 2 percent profit margin and negative 5 percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at 9.3 times, but losses turn the cheap headline into a warning rather than a bargain.
We pass because the business shows no clear path to sustained profits and carries an unknown competitive moat. Eight analysts rate the shares a buy with a 14 dollar median target, yet our fair value of 13.92 against the current 10.96 price still fails to clear the bar once weak returns and thin growth enter the picture. Ethical screens are cleared, yet that alone does not make the numbers attractive.
Cyclical reimbursement cuts and rising equipment costs sit at the top of the risk list and could keep margins under pressure for years. The low multiple reflects those realities rather than an overlooked opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in AHCO's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AHCO trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14. Entered 2026-07-20 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Markdown$10.96+7.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Markdown$10.16+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-16Markdown$10.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Markdown$10.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$10.16Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$11.24
-11.4%
·
$886
-11.4%
2 months
$12.17
-18.2%
·
$818
-18.2%
3 months
$9.75
+2.1%
·
$1,021
+2.1%
6 months
$10.25
-2.9%
·
$971
-2.9%
1 year
$8.82
+12.9%
·
$1,129
+12.9%
2 years
$10.98
-9.3%
·
$907
-9.3%
3 years
$10.30
-3.4%
·
$967
-3.4%
5 years
$27.21
-63.4%
·
$366
-63.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AHCO does next, these words stay.
AdaptHealth Corp. · AHCO · Distribution · $5.77
Recorded 2026-08-12 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
