Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.29, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price54.66 USD
Fair value70.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-19Read Accumulation52.55+4.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-19Read Markdown52.09+4.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-08-20Read Distribution53.67+1.8% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-20Read Markup58.07-5.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 28% rise in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ACI Worldwide, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $54.66. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$54.66
Valuation
24.90 trailing · 13.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.84%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.85%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
ACI Worldwide, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 27%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when ACIW's ethical verdict changes
Today ACIW passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payments software stuck in modest growth lane
Every time a retailer settles a card transaction or a bank clears a bill payment, the software underneath has to work without fuss. ACI Worldwide supplies some of that plumbing, yet its revenue is expanding only 8 percent a year with a 12 percent profit margin and 14 percent return on equity. Those numbers do not scream durable advantage, and the unknown moat leaves little room for confidence that today's valuation will translate into lasting outperformance.
The shares sit below our calculated fair value and carry a clean ethical screen, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. Forward earnings sit at 15.1 times and analyst targets cluster around 66 dollars, offering only thin upside once growth and returns are weighed properly. Without clearer evidence of widening competitive ground or accelerating cash generation, the setup stays uncompelling.
Risk centres on execution in a crowded payments market where larger rivals can outspend on product and distribution. Currency moves and customer concentration add further volatility that a mid-teens multiple does not fully price. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ACIW trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Accumulation$54.54+3.8%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-10-12Markdown$50.87+2.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-10-02Markdown$49.69-4.6%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-09-19Markdown · changed$52.09-2.9%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-20Markup · changed$58.07+28.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 28.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-18Distribution$45.24+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-16Distribution$45.24+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-03Distribution$45.24+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
