Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
ACI Worldwide, Inc. holds its Markdown at $52.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$52.09
Valuation
23.89 trailing · 13.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.84%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.85%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payments software stuck in modest growth lane
Every time a retailer settles a card transaction or a bank clears a bill payment, the software underneath has to work without fuss. ACI Worldwide supplies some of that plumbing, yet its revenue is expanding only 8 percent a year with a 12 percent profit margin and 14 percent return on equity. Those numbers do not scream durable advantage, and the unknown moat leaves little room for confidence that today's valuation will translate into lasting outperformance.
The shares sit below our calculated fair value and carry a clean ethical screen, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. Forward earnings sit at 15.1 times and analyst targets cluster around 66 dollars, offering only thin upside once growth and returns are weighed properly. Without clearer evidence of widening competitive ground or accelerating cash generation, the setup stays uncompelling.
Risk centres on execution in a crowded payments market where larger rivals can outspend on product and distribution. Currency moves and customer concentration add further volatility that a mid-teens multiple does not fully price. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ACIW trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-20Markup · changed$58.07+28.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 28.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-18Distribution$45.24+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-16Distribution$45.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-03Distribution$45.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$45.24Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
