Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price149.50 USD
Fair value180.01
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-03Read Markup120.79+23.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Merck & Co. holds its Distribution at $149.50. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 162 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 162 days
Price at the screen
$149.50
Valuation
119.60 trailing · 15.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.70%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.53%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $180.01 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 5.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Merck, a Star Stripped by Debt
Imagine the scene: a world-class healthcare juggernaut, Merck, churning out life-saving medicines, from cancer treatments to vaccines. Yet, this titan of healthcare is weighed down by a staggering debt load. It’s this debt ratio that fails our ethical screen, casting a shadow over Merck’s otherwise stellar operations.
Why it stands out, aside from the ethical dilemma, is the value proposition. Priced at $148.99 against our fair value of $179.00, implying a margin of safety of +20%. This is coupled with a modest revenue growth of 5% and a profit margin of 5%. Despite the robust Moat: MODERATE, suggesting competitive resilience, the debt issue is a glaring red flag.
Risk, however, is multifaceted. The forward P/E of 15.6x and an ROE of 7% might suggest a bargain, but the ethical failing on debt ratio is significant. It's a stark reminder that even blue-chip companies can have Achilles’ heels, and in this case, it’s a debt burden that analysts seem to have overlooked in their consensus buy rating with a median target of $150. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$148.99+13.7%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-08-04Markup$131.07+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$131.07+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$131.07+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$131.07+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$131.07+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$131.07+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$131.07+8.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$120.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-03Markup$120.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
