Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.44 USD
Fair value15.15
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-22Read Markup13.16+2.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation6.68+101.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. holds its Accumulation at $13.44. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$13.44
Valuation
10.78 trailing · 15.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
93.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 93.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
12.20%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $15.15 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 13.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home Care Growth Story Trips On Heavy Debt
Families want loved ones cared for at home rather than in expensive hospitals, and Aveanna sits in the middle of that shift with 16% revenue growth and a 10% profit margin. The numbers look tidy on paper, forward earnings at 12.5 times and a return on equity printed at 368%, yet the opportunity rating stays at avoid because the business fails the ethical screen on its debt ratio.
We pass for that single reason even though analysts lean buy and a modest margin of safety appears versus our fair value. The high return figure is likely inflated by leverage, not durable operating strength, and a moderate moat offers little protection if interest costs rise or reimbursement rates slip.
Debt levels create real fragility in a sector already exposed to regulatory and labour shocks. The ethical screen exists to flag exactly these cases before they become portfolio problems. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVAH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$13.16+35.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 35.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-22Accumulation$9.69+45.1%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 45.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Accumulation$6.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Accumulation$6.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$6.68Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
