An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of mineral properties in Mexico.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $5.50
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. holds its Distribution at $5.50.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 44 days
Price
$5.50
Valuation
25.00 trailing · 6.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 97.0
Beta
2.93
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY — it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $7.43 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 109.30% revenue growth.
Read at
$5.50
25.00 P/E · 6.79 fwd
Our fair value
$7.43
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$12.13
+120% to current
Target low $8.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $13.00
▲ current $5.50 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$5.50
you are here
Conservative
$7.20
+31%
Analyst avg
$12.13
+120%
Our fair value
$7.43
+35%
Analyst high
$13.00
+136%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
109.30%
Profit margin
32.74%
Debt to equity
3.03
Analyst consensus
None · 4 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 0.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Silver from Mexico looks cheap until prices turn
Picture a Mexican mine crew hauling silver and gold out of the ground while global metal prices lurch like a rollercoaster. Avino shows revenue doubling, a 33 percent profit margin and 18 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of just 6.8 times. The shares sit 35 percent below our fair value, the ethical screen clears without issue, and the moat is rated moderate.
Yet this is a classic cyclical trap. Low multiples in precious metals often mark peak earnings rather than bargains, and any drop in silver or gold prices can wipe out those margins fast. Currency swings, permitting delays and four sparse analyst notes add further uncertainty even with a median target at 12 dollars.
Commodity cycles reward patience and punish overconfidence. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in ASM's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ASM trades on NYSE American (the company is based in Canada). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $11. Entered 2026-07-21 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Distribution$5.50-5.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Distribution$5.84+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-17Distribution$5.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Distribution$5.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$5.84Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
