An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company engages in the insurance business in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $158.90
Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company holds its Distribution at $158.90.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 65 days
Price
$158.90
Valuation
21.80 trailing · 15.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.07
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$158.90
21.80 P/E · 15.72 fwd
Our fair value
$173.12
9% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$194.60
+22% to current
Target low $160.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $220.00
▲ current $158.90 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$158.90
you are here
Conservative
$144.00
-9%
Analyst avg
$194.60
+22%
Our fair value
$173.12
+9%
Analyst high
$220.00
+38%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
18.30%
Profit margin
5.18%
Debt to equity
4.49
Analyst consensus
None · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Saudi Arabia and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in 8210.SR's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191. Entered 2026-07-20 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Markdown$158.90-12.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-18Markdown$180.80+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-16Markdown$180.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-03Markdown$180.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$180.80Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$179.20
+6.8%
·
$1,068
+6.8%
2 months
$181.00
+5.7%
·
$1,057
+5.7%
3 months
$171.30
+11.7%
·
$1,117
+11.7%
6 months
$154.10
+24.1%
·
$1,241
+24.1%
1 year
$170.09
+12.5%
$4.00
$1,148
+14.8%
2 years
$230.19
-16.9%
$8.00
$866
-13.4%
3 years
$175.33
+9.1%
$11.60
$1,157
+15.7%
5 years
$87.18
+119.4%
$17.92
$2,400
+140.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 8210.SR does next, these words stay.
Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company · 8210.SR · Distribution · $158.90
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically