NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,168+0.14%BTC$86,421+1.96%VIX15.31−6.59%live tape · as of 03:09 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Specialty
MGIC Investment Corporation
MTG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.8B · 542 employees
MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto R…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
28.25 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-29 · not a live quote Last reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-09-29 · the tape above runs as of 03:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 28.25 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 35.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price28.25 USD
Fair value35.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown28.25+0.0% to today
2026-09-06Read Accumulation31.10-9.2% to today
2026-08-06Read Markup30.04-6.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution25.81+9.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MGIC Investment Corporation holds its Distribution at $28.25. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-29
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$28.25
Valuation
8.83 trailing · 8.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.65
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
MGIC Investment does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage cover looks cheap but hits ethical wall
Every time a family in Milwaukee takes out a home loan the private mortgage cover sits quietly in the background. MGIC Investment supplies that cover yet our screen blocks any exposure to insurance outright. The business therefore never reaches the desk for further review.
Numbers show a forward multiple of 8.9 times earnings, a 60 percent profit margin and 14 percent return on equity. Revenue however slipped 3 percent and the consensus target sits at the current price of 29.47 dollars. Opportunity rating stays at none.
The ethical block is the decisive factor and leaves no room for debate on valuation or cyclical housing exposure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$28.25-9.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$30.04+16.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-18Distribution$25.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-03Distribution$25.81+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$25.81Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
