The Market Has Already Paid Up for Texas Instruments

Where our screen stands going in

The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.

What the Street expects

Consensus looks for earnings of about $2.40 a share on revenue near $5.9B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $10.64 of earnings per share against $6.41 over the last twelve, growth of about 66%. The median analyst target is $340 (range $225 to $400), 22% above the $279.35 share price, across 31 analysts.

How it has traded on past prints

Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +1.4% in the five sessions after the print and +4.6% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +6.8%; after a miss, +0.0%.

What options are pricing

Implied volatility near 96% prices a one-week move of roughly ±13.2% (about $242.37 to $316.33). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $165 and the heaviest call open interest at $302; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.

Levels that matter

At $279.35 the shares sit 16% below the 52-week high of $334.03 and 83% above the low of $152.73 (70% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $272.31, below the price. The 200-day average is $231.32, below the price.

Valuation going in

The shares trade about 30% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $214.97 against the current share price of $279.35. The shares trade at 43.5 times trailing earnings and 26.2 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 23% with net margins near 31%.

Our stance

We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.

What the flow says going in

Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.21, five-day price change -3.5%, as of 2026-10-20, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.