Earnings Preview · 15 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $0.79 a share on revenue near $2.2B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $3.33 of earnings per share against $4.50 over the last twelve, a decline of about 26%. The median analyst target is $160 (range $140 to $170), 21% above the $132.08 share price, across 13 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 24 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.0% in the five sessions after the print and +1.1% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +0.6%; after a miss, +2.6%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
Levels that matter
At $132.08 the shares sit 14% below the 52-week high of $153.35 and 19% above the low of $111.03 (50% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 24% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $106.67 against the current share price of $132.08. The shares trade at 29.6 times trailing earnings and 39.9 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 12% with net margins near 44%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.05, five-day price change +2.5%, as of 2026-10-14, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
