Earnings Review · 13 October 2026
The print
Revenue $52.85B. EPS $5.75 vs $5.94 expected.
How the market took it
On 2026-10-13 the shares closed at $331.43, -0.9% against the prior close of $334.30 (opening +1.7% from the prior close). Sellers faded the pop: 2.6 points of the opening gain were given back by the close, which says the first read was too generous. Option volatility implied a normal one-day swing of about ±1.4%, so a -0.9% close was smaller than the market implied. Across the last 24 reports the shares have moved an average of +0.5% over the five sessions after the print, so the -0.9% on the day sits behind that average.
What changed versus going in
Earnings came in at $5.75 a share against $5.94 expected, a miss of 3% (-$0.19 a share). Revenue of $52.85B compares with $51.20B expected, 3.2% above consensus.
Did the flow confirm the move?
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.10, five-day price change +0.2%, as of 2026-10-09, desk flow model).
Give the business its due
The business itself is genuinely strong: revenue growing about 30%, net margins near 35%, a moderate competitive moat, backed by a 18% return on equity.
Levels that matter
At $331.43 the shares sit 10% below the 52-week high of $366.50 and 19% above the low of $279.10 (60% of the way up the range).
The valuation lens
The shares trade about 11% below our fair-value estimate: a modest cushion. Fair value lands near $373 against a $331.43 share price, a margin of safety of about 11%. The trailing multiple sits around 15 times earnings, which only makes sense if the growth holds.
The ethical lens, our differentiator
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
The compliant alternative
If the theme is what draws you, Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK.QA) sits in the same industry (Banks – Regional) and clears our principled screen, the place to look instead of chasing a name that does not.
The verdict for a values-conscious investor
A beat-and-raise does not change the screen. This is a great company you can admire without owning, protection first. One quarter, strong or soft, does not decide whether a holding is suitable.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
