Earnings Preview · 21 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Debt ratio. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $2.87 a share on revenue near $16.8B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $13.15 of earnings per share against $11.11 over the last twelve, growth of about 18%. The median analyst target is $240 (range $174 to $297), 0% below the $240.96 share price, across 23 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.5% in the five sessions after the print and -0.6% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -2.5%; after a miss, +15.2%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
Levels that matter
At $240.96 the shares sit 28% below the 52-week high of $332.46 and 21% above the low of $199.19 (31% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $232.00, below the price. The 200-day average is $253.49, above the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (+6% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $257.32 against the current share price of $240.96. The shares trade at 21.1 times trailing earnings and 17.8 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 1% with net margins near 16%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.31, five-day price change +2.2%, as of 2026-10-16, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
