Earnings Preview · 20 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $2.01 a share on revenue near $12.9B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $9.10 of earnings per share against $8.48 over the last twelve, growth of about 7%. The median analyst target is $400 (range $305 to $435), 33% above the $301.40 share price, across 21 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +1.3% in the five sessions after the print and +4.8% over twenty.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 61% prices a one-week move of roughly ±8.4% (about $275.98 to $326.82). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $290 and the heaviest call open interest at $310; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $301.40 the shares sit 22% below the 52-week high of $388.84 and 12% above the low of $268.91 (27% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $330.44, above the price. The 200-day average is $315.74, above the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (-4% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $291.00 against the current share price of $301.40. The shares trade at 36.2 times trailing earnings and 33.7 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 21% with net margins near 18%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.03, five-day price change +1.8%, as of 2026-10-16, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
