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New York 02:00 EDT
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Tokyo 15:00 JST
Bitcoin Crashed $400 Billion While Congress Voted to Leash the Iran War. London Opens Into Both.
Two overnight developments change the picture. Bitcoin fell below $63,000 for the first time since February, with $1.8 billion in leveraged crypto positions liquidated in a single session. Separately, the US House voted 215-208 to restrict the President’s authority to continue military operations against Iran without congressional approval. Crude closed yesterday at $96.07. If the Iran premium starts to unwind, that number moves fast. London opens with both stories still being priced.
Yesterday’s Scorecard: 5 of 6 Calls Confirmed
Our Pre-NY brief was the strongest call of the week. We raised risk to 68% after the VIX reversal and flagged “rising VIX plus rising crude into a high-stakes data print” at 11:47 AM ET. ISM hit at 10:00 AM. The market sold off and did not recover. Russell led at -1.35% while Nasdaq barely flinched at -0.09%.
The divergence between Russell and Nasdaq continues to be the honest tell. When real money repositions, small caps move first. Mega-cap tech became the safe haven inside equities.
Overnight: The Two Stories That Matter
$1.8 billion in leveraged crypto positions liquidated overnight. Largest single-day wipeout since January 2026. Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 for the first time since February. It has now shed $400 billion in market cap since May 11th. This is not a dip. This is leveraged positioning being forced out. The question for London: does this contagion stay in crypto or does it bleed into risk assets? Watch Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin. If ETH falls harder, the liquidation is not done.
The US House voted 215-208 to restrict the President’s ability to continue the Iran war without congressional approval. Four Republicans crossed party lines. This does not end the conflict, but it changes the calculus. Crude at $96 is pricing in sustained military operations. If the market interprets this as a de-escalation signal, the Hormuz premium that has been structural for weeks starts to unwind. That is a potential tailwind for equities and a headwind for energy. Watch Brent-WTI spread for early signals.
London Session: FTSE 100 and DAX 40
FTSE 100 sits in an interesting position. The Iran vote is a potential positive for UK energy-heavy indices if crude pulls back — but the same pullback hurts BP and Shell, which are FTSE heavyweights. Net effect depends on whether the broader risk-on bid from lower oil outweighs the energy drag.
DAX 40 has been more resilient than US small caps through this ISM-driven selloff. European manufacturing PMIs have been less alarming than US services data. Watch Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) for the broader European read. If European equities hold while US futures dip, the rotation trade has legs.
The Earnings Gauntlet: AVGO, CRWD, PANW Tonight
| Company | When | Why It Matters | Options Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcom (AVGO) | After close | AI infrastructure spend bellwether. VMware integration progress. | High |
| CrowdStrike (CRWD) | After close | Cybersecurity demand + Iran conflict tailwind. Post-outage recovery. | High |
| Palo Alto (PANW) | After close | Platform strategy progress. Next-gen security spend. | High |
AVGO is the one that moves the indices. A strong beat with AI guidance will do what ISM could not: give the bulls a reason to buy the dip. A miss will confirm the selloff. CRWD and PANW are the cybersecurity read — defence spending and enterprise security demand into geopolitical uncertainty.
Sentiment Check
Retail sentiment is skewed bearish at 41.9% versus the historical average of 31%. Fear and Greed has dropped from Greed to Neutral in one session. This is not capitulation but it is the kind of pessimism that historically coincides with short-term bottoms. The contrarian read says buy. The tape says not yet.
Currency and Commodity Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | 1.3420 | Holding above 1.34. Constructive. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1602 | Dollar weakness persists. |
| USD/JPY | 160.05 | Intervention risk above 160. BoJ watching. |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Watch | Safe haven bid if crypto contagion spreads. |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $96.07 | Iran vote = potential de-escalation. Watch $93 support. |
Today’s Scenarios
London holds, AVGO beats after close, crypto stabilises. SPY recovers $758+.
Markets wait for earnings. SPY $752-758 range. Volume thin until NY open.
Crypto contagion hits risk. IWM tests $285. VIX through 17. Pre-NFP de-risking.
Crude drops below $93. Risk-on bid lifts everything. VIX collapses sub-15.
Three consecutive sessions of rising VIX, crypto liquidation cascade overnight, ISM selloff unresolved, and earnings risk tonight. The Iran vote adds a wildcard. Position sizing should be reduced until AVGO reports. If you must trade the London session, favour defined risk with tight stops. The real opportunity comes after 4pm ET when the earnings picture clears.
Key Levels
| Instrument | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 7,520 | 7,600 | Neutral, watching |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) | 30,400 | 30,800 | Neutral, AVGO-dependent |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | $285 | $290 | Weak. Below $285 = trouble. |
| FTSE 100 | 8,700 | 8,800 | Iran vote reaction key |
| DAX 40 | 19,400 | 19,700 | Relative strength |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $93 | $98 | Iran vote wildcards |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $60,000 | $65,000 | Liquidation not done until $60K tested |
Cross-References
Our Alpha Insights package covered the full ISM selloff across all 19 analytical lenses yesterday. The Dark Pool Flow page shows where institutional volume concentrated during the selloff. Our Options Intelligence page tracks max pain and expected moves for tonight’s earnings names. The Iran Oil Tracker monitors the Conflict Drift Index, which peaked in March and has reverted 90.8%.
This briefing is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this content constitutes financial advice. All trading carries substantial risk including loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Capital at risk.