Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.37, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price44.64 USD
Fair value55.59
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup42.52+5.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-02Read Markdown43.49+2.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 2 weeks
2026-09-15Read Distribution48.91-8.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-08-15Read Markup47.91-6.8% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 11% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
TPG Inc holds its Markup at $44.64. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$44.64
Valuation
63.46 trailing · 11.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Asset Management
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Asset Management
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
TPG does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when TPG's ethical verdict changes
Today TPG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Asset Manager Trips Ethical Screen at Low Price
Picture a fund manager taking a cut of every deal while markets swing. TPG sits in that seat as an alternative asset manager, yet it fails our ethical screen on the excluded industry. That alone ends the conversation before any numbers matter.
The stock trades at 12.1 times forward earnings with a 28 percent gap to stated fair value, yet revenue has fallen 57 percent and profit margins sit at just 4 percent. Return on equity of 11 percent and a narrow moat offer little cushion against fee pressure and market cycles. Analysts may cluster around a buy rating near 58 dollars, but the business shows none of the durable growth that would normally offset the ethical block.
High cyclical exposure in asset management means low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains. Currency moves, redemption waves and regulatory shifts add further volatility that the narrow moat cannot contain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TPG trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$44.64+5.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$42.52+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$42.52+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$42.52+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$42.52+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$42.52+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$42.52+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$42.52+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$42.52-2.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$43.49-11.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
