The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
On Holding AG
ONON · USD · Market cap $10.8B · 3,963 employees
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Ameri…
Screened 2026-08-14 · the tape above runs as of 16:37 UTC · 29 Aug · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
On Holding AG holds its Distribution at $32.22. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-14
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$32.22
Valuation
22.07 trailing · 15.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.09%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
46.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 46.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.03%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +57% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Shoes built for speed but not distinction
Picture lacing up trainers that promise performance yet blend into a crowded field of established rivals. On Holding sells athletic footwear across Europe, the Americas and Asia, yet its narrow moat leaves the business exposed to bigger brands with deeper pockets and stronger loyalty.
Revenue is rising 14 percent and the firm clears an 8 percent profit margin with 16 percent ROE. The shares trade at 17.3 times forward earnings against a fair value that implies 31 percent upside, while analysts cluster around a 50 dollar target. It clears the ethical screen, but none of that moves the needle into an opportunity.
Consumer cyclical demand can swing sharply when spending tightens, and a narrow moat offers little defence if fashion shifts or competition intensifies. The setup looks steady rather than compelling.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Markup$38.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Markup$38.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$38.58Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
