The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
North American Construction Group Ltd
NOA · USD · Market cap $359M · 479 employees
North American Construction Group Ltd.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
13.26 USD
At the last full screen 2025-12-31
Screened 2025-12-31 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
North American Construction Group Ltd holds its Distribution at $13.26. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 38 days.
As held on the ledger · 2025-12-31
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 38 days
Price at the screen
$13.26
Valuation
16.78 trailing · 6.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
51.47%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 51.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.01%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2025-12-31 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2025-12-31 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-08-07Markdown · changed$13.26-1.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-18Distribution$13.51+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-03Distribution$13.51+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$13.51Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.