The Screen · Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production
Boise Cascade Company
BCC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.8B · 7,660 employees
Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada.
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Boise Cascade Company holds its Markdown at $79.94. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$79.94
Valuation
27.10 trailing · 15.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
24.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lumber Demand Swings Rarely Reward Low Multiples
Every new house starts with a truckload of plywood and studs whose price can swing 50% in a year. Boise Cascade sits right in that chain, yet its revenue is already falling 2% and margins sit at just 2%. A forward P/E of 14 times looks modest until you remember earnings peak when housing booms and collapse when rates bite.
The market prices the shares as though current returns will linger, but a 5% return on equity and unknown competitive edge tell a different story. This is classic cyclical value-trap territory where a low multiple simply signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Analysts may still chase targets near 94, yet the numbers show no durable advantage worth buying at 77.
Housing starts, interest rates and inventory gluts can all turn quickly and leave capacity idle. Ethical checks clear but that alone does not fix thin margins or the absence of any margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BCC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$86.60+12.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-22Distribution$77.19+8.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-18Distribution$71.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-03Distribution$71.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$71.14Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
