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The Screen · Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production
Boise Cascade Company
BCC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.6B · 7,660 employees
Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.73, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price76.02 USD
Fair value70.80
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markdown75.59+0.6% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-20Read Accumulation75.48+0.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markdown75.66+0.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-22Read Markup86.60-12.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 22% rise in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Boise Cascade Company holds its Markdown at $76.02. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1071 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1071 days
Price at the screen
$76.02
Valuation
25.71 trailing · 14.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
24.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Boise Cascade clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 16%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BCC passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lumber Demand Swings Rarely Reward Low Multiples
Every new house starts with a truckload of plywood and studs whose price can swing 50% in a year. Boise Cascade sits right in that chain, yet its revenue is already falling 2% and margins sit at just 2%. A forward P/E of 14 times looks modest until you remember earnings peak when housing booms and collapse when rates bite.
The market prices the shares as though current returns will linger, but a 5% return on equity and unknown competitive edge tell a different story. This is classic cyclical value-trap territory where a low multiple simply signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Analysts may still chase targets near 94, yet the numbers show no durable advantage worth buying at 77.
Housing starts, interest rates and inventory gluts can all turn quickly and leave capacity idle. Ethical checks clear but that alone does not fix thin margins or the absence of any margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BCC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$75.59+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$75.59+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$75.59+0.1%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-10-13Markdown$73.57-2.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$75.66-12.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-08-22Markup · changed$86.60+12.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-22Distribution$77.19+8.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-18Distribution$71.14+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-03Distribution$71.14+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
