An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $2.84
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. holds its Distribution at $2.84.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price
$2.84
Valuation
N/A trailing · -14.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
3.13
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$2.84
N/A P/E · -14.20 fwd
Our fair value
$5.00
76% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$5.00
+76% to current
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$2.84
you are here
Conservative
$5.00
+76%
Analyst avg
$5.00
+76%
Our fair value
$5.00
+76%
Analyst high
$5.00
+76%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-0.90%
Profit margin
-226.69%
Debt to equity
3.05
Analyst consensus
Hold · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
AI for spies but the numbers tell another story
BigBear.ai sells decision tools to defence and supply chains, yet revenue slipped 1% while losses hit 227% of sales. A forward multiple of negative 14 times and return on equity at minus 58% show a business still burning cash, not scaling. The gap to a $5 fair value looks wide on paper, but the underlying results give no sign that the gap will close.
Analysts rate it a hold with the same $5 target, yet two voices and an unknown moat leave little conviction. Ethical checks clear, yet the operating record does not. Margin of safety claims rest on hope rather than visible progress.
The risk sits in execution and dilution. Negative growth plus heavy losses often lead to repeated capital raises that punish holders. This is why the opportunity rating stays at none. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in BBAI's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
BBAI trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 29.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Entered 2026-07-22 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Accumulation$2.84-29.4%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 29.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-18Accumulation$4.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-03Accumulation$4.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$4.02Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$4.32
-6.6%
·
$934
-6.6%
2 months
$3.32
+21.5%
·
$1,215
+21.5%
3 months
$4.03
+0.1%
·
$1,001
+0.1%
6 months
$6.74
-40.1%
·
$599
-40.1%
1 year
$3.77
+7.0%
·
$1,070
+7.0%
2 years
$1.36
+196.7%
·
$2,967
+196.7%
3 years
$2.04
+97.8%
·
$1,978
+97.8%
5 years
$9.83
-59.0%
·
$411
-59.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BBAI does next, these words stay.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. · BBAI · Distribution · $2.84
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
