Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.15, read 2026-10-25
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price55.66 USD
Fair value65.80
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown63.34-12.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 16% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-15Read Accumulation75.10-25.9% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 30% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution57.55-3.3% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
U-Haul Holding Company holds its Markdown at $55.66. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$55.66
Valuation
397.21 trailing · 26.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
82.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 82.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
10.54%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.81%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
U-Haul's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 82% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when UHAL's ethical verdict changes
Today UHAL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +62% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Debt burden sinks this household mover
Picture a family lugging boxes across town. The van belongs to U-Haul, yet the balance sheet carries more debt than the business can comfortably support. We pass. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio, and the rest of the numbers do nothing to change the view.
Forward earnings sit at 33.6 times while revenue grows just 3 percent, profit margins run at 1 percent and return on equity is also 1 percent. The moat is weak. Analysts may like the shares and eye a much higher price, yet the gap between the current price and our fair value already shows limited room for error.
High leverage in a cyclical rental market leaves little margin for an economic dip or rising interest costs. The ethical failure on debt simply rules it out. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UHAL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markdown$55.66+0.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$55.61+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$55.61-0.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-10-18Markdown$55.92-8.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-10-02Markdown$60.88-3.9%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$63.34-15.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 30.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-18Distribution$57.55+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-03Distribution$57.55+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$57.55Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
