Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 2.50, read 2026-10-17
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price130.55 USD
Fair value261.10
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Distribution130.55+0.0% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Markdown137.10-4.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Distribution137.10-4.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-09-05Read Markup142.07-8.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Oracle Corporation holds its Distribution at $130.55. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-14
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$130.55
Valuation
20.46 trailing · 11.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.01%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Oracle's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-20. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for cloud computing and database technology operations supporting Israeli government and military infrastructure. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 100% discount to our $261.10 fair value, strong competitive moat, 29.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 41 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +84% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oracle's Ethical Lapse Shadows Its Strengths
Imagine a tech titan that powers the world's databases, yet its own financial health has a glaring red flag. That's Oracle Corporation, a household name in enterprise IT environments, with a robust product line that includes cloud services and enterprise resource planning ERP. Despite its strong moat, competitive advantage, and a forward P/E of 13.0x, which suggests it's a steal, Oracle's ethical screen shows it's failing on the debt ratio - a critical measure for financial stability.
Why it stands out, on the surface, is its remarkable revenue growth of 21%, complemented by a profit margin of 25% and an ROE of 53%, which are figures that would typically command attention from any investor. Oracle's cloud software as a service offering is a cornerstone of its business, and in a world increasingly reliant on cloud technology, its products are more relevant than ever.
However, the risk sits squarely on its debt ratio, which has caused it to fail our ethical screen. This is significant because high debt can be a precursor to financial instability, especially in uncertain economic times. While the market consensus is a 'buy' with a median target of $240, the ethical lapse is a red line that cannot be ignored.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORCL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$137.10+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 15.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-09-10Markup$162.52+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markup$162.52+14.4%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Markup$142.07+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markup$142.07+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markup · changed$142.07+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Accumulation$142.07+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
