Spot VIX and Daily Move
VIX closed at 15.21 after a 2.49 percent rise which means the index remains below its 5 day average of 15.31 and therefore keeps the regime in a low-volatility state. The print sits 0.37 above the prior close of 14.84 because the single-session gain failed to push the measure into elevated territory. Yesterday and 1 day change fields remain empty so no additional comparison to the immediate prior session is possible.
Term Structure Readings
VIX9D at 11.68 trades below the spot VIX of 15.21 which means shorter-dated volatility continues to price near-term calm. This upward-sloping curve holds because front-month measures sit at a clear discount to the main index and therefore reduce the probability of an immediate spike. VVIX at 85.93 shows contained movement in volatility itself which means any shifts in the VIX are likely to stay moderate rather than abrupt.
| Measure | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| VIX9D vs Spot | 11.68 below 15.21 | Near-term calm priced in |
| VVIX | 85.93 | Vol-of-vol remains moderate |
Support and Resistance Boundaries
Support rests at the prior close of 14.84 because a break beneath that level would signal the first meaningful deterioration in the calm regime. Resistance sits at the daily high of 15.53 because a sustained move above it would lift the VIX closer to its 5 day average and therefore begin to reprice some fear back into the surface.
Risk Assessment
The risk percentage stands at 22 because the VIX remains 0.10 below its 5 day average which leaves limited headroom before the calm reading is challenged. This percentage reflects the probability-weighted distance to the resistance level of 15.53 given current term-structure stability.
Scenario Triggers and Weights
40 percent probability attaches to VIX holding below 15.31 because the current 0.10 discount to the 5 day average would keep the regime unchanged. 35 percent probability attaches to a move above 15.53 because that breach would lift implied volatility closer to the recent average and begin to steepen fear measures. 25 percent probability attaches to a drop beneath 14.84 because that break would confirm further compression in the term structure and reinforce the calm reading.
Experience-Level Observations
| Level | Focus from Tape |
|---|---|
| Beginner | Track whether VIX stays below its 5 day average of 15.31 |
| Intermediate | Watch VIX9D discount to spot for signs of term-structure flattening |
| Advanced | Monitor VVIX at 85.93 for any expansion that precedes VIX regime shifts |
Volatility holds in a low calm regime with an upward term structure which means fear remains absent.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
