Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.44 USD
Fair value23.72
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown16.44+0.0% to today
2026-08-25Read Markup17.64-6.8% to today
2026-08-18Read Distribution17.52-6.2% to today ✓
2026-07-18Read Markdown17.40-5.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Xiaomi Corporation holds its Markdown at $16.44. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$16.44
Valuation
18.07 trailing · 16.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
109.65%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 109.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Xiaomi's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 44.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Xiaomi trips over its own debt load
Picture a phone that sells everywhere from Delhi markets to European shelves yet still carries more borrowed money than its cash flow can comfortably handle. Xiaomi fails our ethical screen on debt ratio and shows revenue sliding 11 percent, so we pass. The forward multiple sits at 15.4 times earnings with only a 9 percent margin of safety to our fair value, leaving little room for error.
Profit margins of 8 percent and return on equity of 14 percent look ordinary rather than exceptional, and a moderate moat offers no special protection against slowing smartphone demand. Two analysts see a much higher target but that does not change the core picture of a business losing top-line momentum while carrying too much leverage.
The main risks sit in further sales erosion and any rise in borrowing costs that would squeeze an already thin balance sheet. Currency moves across emerging markets add another layer of volatility that could quickly erase the slim valuation cushion. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XIACY trades on PNK. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$16.44-6.8%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$17.64+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$17.64+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$17.64+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Distribution$17.64+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Distribution$17.64+0.7%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Distribution$17.52+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-19Distribution$17.52+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$17.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
