An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Suzano S.A.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $8.11
Suzano SA ADR holds its Accumulation at $8.11.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-14
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 41 days
Price
$8.11
Valuation
4.58 trailing · 5.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.02
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$8.11
4.58 P/E · 5.48 fwd
Our fair value
$10.73
32% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$12.80
+58% to current
Target low $10.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $13.84
▲ current $8.11 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$8.11
you are here
Conservative
$9.00
+11%
Analyst avg
$12.80
+58%
Our fair value
$10.73
+32%
Analyst high
$13.84
+71%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-5.10%
Profit margin
22.96%
Debt to equity
202.35
Analyst consensus
Buy · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 60.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 12.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 3.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Cheap Pulp Stock Hides Cyclical Value Trap
Every time a new tissue roll spins out or a printer spits fresh pages, the pulp behind it often traces back to Brazilian forests. Suzano sits at the centre of that supply chain, yet the business now posts falling revenue and a weak competitive moat.
The forward multiple of 5.5 times earnings looks attractive next to a 23 percent profit margin and 26 percent ROE. Still, this is a classic cyclical setup where low multiples usually flag peak earnings rather than bargains, and the opportunity rating stays at none.
Currency swings and commodity price drops can erase the paper margin of safety in months. The ethical screen clears, but the industry cycle does not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in SUZ's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13. Entered 2026-08-14 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-14Accumulation · changed$8.44+2.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Distribution$8.23+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Distribution$8.23+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$8.23Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$8.74
-8.2%
·
$918
-8.2%
2 months
$9.40
-14.7%
$0.00
$853
-14.7%
3 months
$10.15
-21.0%
$0.00
$790
-21.0%
6 months
$9.13
-12.2%
$0.00
$879
-12.1%
1 year
$9.56
-16.1%
$0.00
$839
-16.1%
2 years
$9.03
-11.2%
$0.33
$924
-7.6%
3 years
$8.77
-8.6%
$0.57
$979
-2.1%
5 years
$10.22
-21.5%
$1.16
$899
-10.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever SUZ does next, these words stay.
Suzano SA ADR · SUZ · Accumulation · $8.11
Recorded 2026-08-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
