Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price9.29 USD
Fair value12.54
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution9.29+0.0% to today
2026-09-14Read Markup9.14+1.6% to today ✓
2026-08-14Read Accumulation8.44+10.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution8.23+12.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Suzano SA ADR holds its Distribution at $9.29. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 41 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 41 days
Price at the screen
$9.29
Valuation
7.26 trailing · 6.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
60.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 60.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.54%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.95%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.16%
Below 5%
Only 3.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Suzano's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 61% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Pulp Stock Hides Cyclical Value Trap
Every time a new tissue roll spins out or a printer spits fresh pages, the pulp behind it often traces back to Brazilian forests. Suzano sits at the centre of that supply chain, yet the business now posts falling revenue and a weak competitive moat.
The forward multiple of 5.5 times earnings looks attractive next to a 23 percent profit margin and 26 percent ROE. Still, this is a classic cyclical setup where low multiples usually flag peak earnings rather than bargains, and the opportunity rating stays at none.
Currency swings and commodity price drops can erase the paper margin of safety in months. The ethical screen clears, but the industry cycle does not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SUZ trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution · changed$9.29+1.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-09-14Markup · changed$9.14+8.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-08-14Accumulation · changed$8.44+2.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Distribution$8.23+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Distribution$8.23+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$8.23Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
