An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures, packs, and distributes cement in Indonesia and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $1,530.00
Semen Indonesia holds its Distribution at $1,530.00.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · screen not yet scored
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-06-14
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 32 days
Price
$1,530.00
Valuation
45.04 trailing · 4.76 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.17
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $2,065.50 fair value, 8.30% revenue growth.
Read at
$1,530.00
45.04 P/E · 4.76 fwd
Our fair value
$2,065.50
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$2,900.00
+90% to current
Target low $1,750.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $3,800.00
▲ current $1,530.00 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$1,530.00
you are here
Conservative
$2,038.33
+33%
Analyst avg
$2,900.00
+90%
Our fair value
$2,065.50
+35%
Analyst high
$3,800.00
+148%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
8.30%
Profit margin
0.64%
Debt to equity
21.14
Analyst consensus
Buy · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 13.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 7.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly -1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Why it gives us pause
At 4.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $2,065.50, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Indonesia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
SMGR.JK trades on IDX (the company is based in Indonesia). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-27 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Distribution$1,530.00+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$1,530.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markdown$1,530.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markdown$1,530.00+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$1,530.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2745.
2026-07-03Markdown$1,530.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$1,530.00Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$2,028.20
-19.9%
$28.33
$815
-18.5%
2 months
$2,372.79
-31.5%
$28.33
$697
-30.3%
3 months
$2,510.63
-35.3%
$28.33
$658
-34.2%
6 months
$2,727.23
-40.4%
$28.33
$606
-39.4%
1 year
$2,825.69
-42.5%
$28.33
$585
-41.5%
2 years
$3,897.49
-58.3%
$124.55
$449
-55.1%
3 years
$5,516.52
-70.5%
$209.27
$333
-66.7%
5 years
$8,947.16
-81.8%
$626.62
$252
-74.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever SMGR.JK does next, these words stay.
Semen Indonesia · SMGR.JK · Distribution · $1,530.00
Recorded 2026-06-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically