Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price150.08 USD
Fair value127.39
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Distribution156.74-4.2% to today ✓
2026-08-07Read Markup161.59-7.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation146.32+2.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Bank of Canada holds its Distribution at $150.08. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days
Price at the screen
$150.08
Valuation
17.64 trailing · 14.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
National Bank of Canada does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.1% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Canadian Banking Looks Solid Until Ethics Bite
Picture a steady Canadian lender serving households and businesses day after day. The numbers show decent momentum, yet National Bank of Canada fails our ethical screen on business activity, which is enough to rule it out regardless of other metrics.
Revenue growth sits at 18 percent and the profit margin reaches 33 percent, with return on equity at 14 percent and a moderate moat. The shares trade at 16.2 times forward earnings while sitting 24 percent above our fair value of 125.55, so the valuation already offers no margin of safety.
The ethical failure outweighs the growth figures and leaves the stock outside our universe. Cyclical banking earnings can also compress quickly when rates or credit conditions shift. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NTIOF trades on PNK. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$150.08-4.2%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$161.59+10.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%.
2026-07-18Accumulation$146.32+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%.
2026-07-03Accumulation$146.32+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$146.32Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.