Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price45.23 USD
Fair value56.30
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup45.23+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-06Read Distribution44.23+2.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup41.01+10.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NN Group N.V. holds its Distribution at $45.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$45.23
Valuation
11.75 trailing · 4.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: insurance
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NN does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $56.30 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance giant trips on ethical red lines
Picture a Dutch insurer quietly routing pension money into sectors most investors would rather not touch. NN Group lands on the avoid list because it fails our ethical screen on business activity, and no valuation can paper over that. The low forward multiple at 4.0x looks tempting until revenue shrinks 2 percent and return on equity sits at just 6 percent with a weak moat.
We pass because the ethical breach is clear and the operating numbers offer no offsetting strength. Profit margins at 8 percent and single-analyst coverage leave little room for comfort when the business itself sits outside our standards.
Risk sits in the combination of thin returns, negative growth and governance questions that could weigh on the shares for years. The 22 percent gap to stated fair value changes nothing when the screen already says no.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NNGRY trades on PNK. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$45.23+2.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-08-07Markup$46.88+14.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Markup$41.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Markup$41.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$41.01Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
