NCNO
nCino, Inc.
Technology · Software - Application · NMS
$16.02
Close 2026-05-22
✓ ETHICAL PASS
WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$1.7B
Trailing P/E
320.50
Forward P/E
11.28
Rev Growth
+5.9%
Profit Margin
0.9%
ROE
0.9%
Analyst Target
$23.64
Recommendation
BUY
Ethical Screen
| Business Activity | PASS |
| Debt Ratio (0.16%) | PASS |
| Cash Ratio (0.05%) | PASS |
| Receivables Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Revenue Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Overall | PASS |
Score Valuation: 83.5
Score Quality: 38.2
Score Combined: 50.9
Fair Value Est: $21.32 · Margin of Safety: +33.0%
Opportunity Scores
Valuation70.0
Quality15.2
Cash Flow50.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet97.4
Debt Purity51.6
Liquid Purity84.6
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance75.5
Tier: SILVER · Score: 69.4 · Rank: #293
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
| Date | EPS Est. | Reported EPS | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 0.27 | Pending | -- |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | +72.2% |
| 2025-12-03 | -0.02 | 0.06 | +444.8% |
| 2025-08-26 | -0.11 | -0.13 | -16.0% |
| 2025-05-28 | 0.16 | 0.16 | +1.8% |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.18 | 0.12 | -34.9% |
| 2024-12-04 | 0.16 | 0.21 | +31.3% |
| 2024-08-27 | 0.13 | 0.14 | +9.8% |
Quarterly Financials
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | EBITDA | Gross Profit | Op. Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | $149.7M | $8.3M | $15.2M | $91.9M | $2.8M | 0.07 |
| 2025-10-31 | $152.2M | $6.5M | $22.8M | $93.7M | $11.7M | 0.06 |
| 2025-07-31 | $148.8M | -$15.3M | $2.6M | $88.1M | -$9.3M | -0.13 |
| 2025-04-30 | $144.1M | $5.6M | $25.7M | $86.4M | -$1.5M | 0.05 |
| 2025-01-31 | $141.4M | -$18.6M | -$5.4M | $84.4M | -$5.7M | -0.16 |
Insider Transactions
| Date | Name | Role | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | 8,065 | $40.2K |
| 2026-05-05 | SELLERS JEANETTE E | Officer | 3,695 | $66.7K |
| 2026-05-05 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | 16,589 | $299.3K |
| 2026-05-04 | SELLERS JEANETTE E | Officer | 1,486 | $26.8K |
| 2026-05-04 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | 22,073 | $397.6K |
| 2026-05-04 | RIEGER APRIL | Officer | 9,693 | $174.6K |
| 2026-05-04 | ORENSTEIN GREGORY D | Chief Financial Officer | 14,650 | $263.9K |
| 2026-05-04 | NAUDE PIERRE | Director | 35,650 | $642.2K |
| 2026-05-01 | ORENSTEIN GREGORY D | Chief Financial Officer | 274,599 | -- |
| 2026-05-01 | SELLERS JEANETTE E | Officer | 15,446 | -- |
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | % Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 7.0M | $111.8M | 0.1% |
| HMI Capital Management, LP | 6.8M | $108.9M | 0.1% |
| Blackrock Inc. | 5.6M | $90.6M | 0.1% |
| Senvest Management LLC | 5.3M | $85.3M | 0.0% |
| Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC | 5.1M | $82.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 4.7M | $75.8M | 0.0% |
| Hawk Ridge Capital Management, LP | 4.5M | $72.0M | 0.0% |
| Long Path Partners LP | 4.4M | $71.0M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management Llc | 4.4M | $70.8M | 0.0% |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | 3.1M | $49.6M | 0.0% |
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
16 analysts
2 Months Ago
17 analysts
Last Month
17 analysts
Current
16 analysts
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Sell
Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$2.0B
$2.0B
Price/Book
1.73
1.73
Beta
0.721
0.721
Analysts
14
14
Total Revenue (TTM)
$594.8M
$594.8M
Total Debt
$278.7M
$278.7M
Rec. Mean
2.00
2.00
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 50.9 (P75 — top 24.6% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical PASS. 14 analysts at Buy.
Price: $16.02 | Target: $23.64 (+48%) | Fair Value: $21.32 (+33%)
Score
51
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+48%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+5.9%
Profit Margin0.9%
ROE0.9%
Forward P/E11.3
Market Cap$1.7B
Earnings Track Record
| Date | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | $0.27 | Pending | — |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.21 | $0.37 | +72.2% |
| 2025-12-03 | $-0.02 | $0.06 | +444.8% |
| 2025-08-26 | $-0.11 | $-0.13 | -16.0% |
| 2025-05-28 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +1.8% |
| 2025-04-01 | $0.18 | $0.12 | -34.9% |
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $13.62 (-15%) | Entry: $16.02
| Shares | Cost | Profit to Target | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Consensus ($23.64, 14 analysts) | |||
| 10 | $160.25 | +$76.20 (48%) | 3.2R |
| 50 | $801.25 | +$381.00 (48%) | 3.2R |
| 100 | $1,602.50 | +$762.00 (48%) | 3.2R |
| To Fair Value ($21.32) | |||
| 10 | $160.25 | +$53.00 (33%) | 2.2R |
| 50 | $801.25 | +$265.00 (33%) | 2.2R |
| 100 | $1,602.50 | +$530.00 (33%) | 2.2R |
Risk Factors
- No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
nCino, Inc. passes all ethical screens, holds a weak competitive moat, and trades at a 33.0% discount to fair value.
Quantitative Grade
A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.
D
Quant Score
37.0
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile
How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.
VaR 95%
-4.0%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-7.3%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
—
Sortino Ratio
-0.93
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-67.1%
Worst Day
—
Forward Outlook
Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.
30d Prob Up
—
90d Prob Up
—
Median Return 30d
—
Liquidity Score
62
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum
What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?
Kalman Trend
—
Trend Strength
—
Momentum Signal
—
HMM Regime
—
RSI Signal
—
Technical Signals
Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.
MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
—
Relative Volume
0.5x
Short Interest
—
Financial Health
Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.
Altman Z-Score
—
—
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
—
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
—
Correlations
These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.
Most Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| QTWO | 0.524 |
| S | 0.507 |
| FRSH | 0.496 |
| INTA | 0.484 |
| PD | 0.470 |
Inverse Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| ALEC.AE | -0.192 |
| ARIG.BH | -0.175 |
| SUKOONTAKAFL.AE | -0.145 |
| WDAM.QA | -0.139 |
| PBBANK.KL | -0.136 |
Seasonality
Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.
Best Day
Friday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Oct
Worst Month
Feb
Fri-Mon Effect
0.17750912868338664
Earnings Drift
After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.
Avg Drift After Beat
-2.3%
Beat Drift Positive %
50.0%
Consistency
—
Momentum Rankings
How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.
1M Return
-13.9%
3M Return
-0.8%
6M Return
-36.7%
12M Return
-42.9%
Momentum Rank
#4118
Momentum Signal
DOWN