An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $17.85
nCino, Inc. holds its Distribution at $17.85.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 80 days
Price
$17.85
Valuation
148.75 trailing · 11.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.68
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$17.85
148.75 P/E · 11.98 fwd
Our fair value
$28.00
57% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$23.00
+29% to current
Target low $17.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $28.00
▲ current $17.85 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$17.85
you are here
Conservative
$28.00
+57%
Analyst avg
$23.00
+29%
Our fair value
$28.00
+57%
Analyst high
$28.00
+57%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
10.60%
Profit margin
2.17%
Debt to equity
33.19
Analyst consensus
Buy · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 16.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Banks still wrestling with outdated core systems
Picture a regional bank manager still emailing spreadsheets between branches just to open a new account. nCino sells the cloud platform meant to replace that mess, and revenue is still edging up 11 percent a year. At 12 times forward earnings the shares sit well below our $28 fair value, offering a 57 percent margin of safety from the current $17.85 price, and the business clears our ethical screen without issue.
The thesis rests on simple arithmetic. Double-digit revenue growth plus a clean balance sheet can justify a higher multiple once profit margins move beyond the present 2 percent and return on equity climbs past 2 percent. Eleven analysts already see enough runway to carry a consensus buy rating and a $23 median target.
Yet the moat is weak, so any slowdown in bank technology budgets could quickly compress those thin margins further. Low returns on equity leave little room for execution slips or fresh competition. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
NCNO trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$14.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Distribution$14.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$14.92Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.