Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price3.21 USD
Fair value6.42
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markup3.08+4.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-11Read Distribution3.15+1.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Accumulation3.15+1.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-09-05Read Markup3.01+6.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mount Logan Capital Inc. holds its Distribution at $3.21. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$3.21
Valuation
N/A trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
231.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 231.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
325.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 325.6% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mount Logan Capital does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MLCI's ethical verdict changes
Today MLCI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 100% discount to our $6.42 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
On our numbers, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $6.42, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MLCI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Markup · changed$3.08-2.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-11Distribution · changed$3.15+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-02Accumulation · changed$3.15+4.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-09-05Markup · changed$3.01+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-08-05Distribution$3.01+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Distribution$3.01+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Distribution$3.01+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$3.01Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$3.88
-24.7%
$0.03
$761
-23.9%
2 months
$3.74
-21.9%
$0.03
$790
-21.0%
3 months
$5.16
-43.4%
$0.06
$578
-42.2%
6 months
$8.20
-64.4%
$0.06
$364
-63.6%
1 year
$3.87
-24.5%
$0.09
$779
-22.1%
2 years
$3.71
-21.3%
$0.09
$811
-18.9%
3 years
$4.43
-34.1%
$0.09
$679
-32.1%
5 years
$7.91
-63.1%
$0.09
$381
-61.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MLCI does next, these words stay.
Mount Logan Capital Inc. · MLCI · Distribution · $3.21
Recorded 2026-10-23 · before the outcome · scored mechanically