2026-10-25
Lifeway Foods, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:07 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Lifeway Foods, Inc.
LWAY · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $333M · 293 employees
Lifeway Foods, Inc.
Not yet scored22.23 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 20:07 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price22.23 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 6.00)
- Last reviewed3 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $28.80 to $33.92, base estimate $29.50 (screen dated 2026-11-03).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders insiders bought, latest filing 2026-10-02
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 6.00, read 2026-11-03
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price22.23 USD
Fair value29.50
Ethical score98.8/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation22.21+0.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown21.91+1.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-04Read Distribution25.04-11.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 22% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-04Read Accumulation31.95-30.4% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 35% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Lifeway Foods, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $22.23. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days |
| Price at the screen | $22.23 |
| Valuation | 31.96 trailing · 16.33 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 98.8 |
| Beta | 0.47 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 1.85% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 1.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 1.41% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.4% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 0.00% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Lifeway Foods, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Lifeway Foods, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 24% discount to our $29.50 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 24.10% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.6% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $29.50, with a range of $28.80 to $33.92, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsKefir brand grows fast but stays pricey
Walk down any supermarket dairy aisle and you will spot the kefir bottles next to the yoghurt. Lifeway makes most of them in North America and the numbers show the bet is working. Revenue is rising 37 percent, return on equity sits at 18 percent and the business clears our ethical screen without trouble. A moderate moat and defensive category give it real staying power even with only two analysts covering the name.
At 23.3 times forward earnings the shares sit just above our fair value of 30.95 dollars, a slim 3 percent premium to the current price. Profit margins of 7 percent are respectable for packaged food yet leave little room for error if milk prices spike or a bigger rival copies the range. The 34 dollar analyst target offers modest upside but the thin coverage means any forecast carries extra uncertainty.
High growth in a defensive sector is attractive yet the valuation already prices in most of the good news and any slowdown would compress the multiple quickly. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 16.3xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 32.0xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 0.69 |
| EPS, forward | 1.35 |
| Revenue growth | +24.1%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | 4.5%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 13.3%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -9.65% |
| Debt to equity | 0.27minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 2.09comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.47barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.11% |
| 52-week range | 17.31 - 32.71 |
| Moat | MODERATE |
| Market cap | $333M |
| Employees | 293 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeLWAY trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04
Accumulation $22.23
+0.1% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-28
Accumulation · changed $22.21
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-21
Markdown $22.21
+0.2% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-14
Markdown $22.16
+1.1% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $21.91
-12.5% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-09-04
Distribution · changed $25.04
-21.6% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-08-04
Accumulation · changed $31.95
+35.4% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 35.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18
Distribution $23.60
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03
Distribution $23.60
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (99). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Distribution $23.60
Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (99). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales Amidst Cost Pressures GuruFocus.com · 16 Aug 2026
- Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales Amidst Cost Pressures Yahoo Finance · 16 Aug 2026
- Lifeway Foods Q2 Earnings Call Highlights MarketBeat · 13 Aug 2026
- Lifeway Foods Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Yahoo Finance · 13 Aug 2026
- Lifeway Foods® Delivers Highest Quarterly Net Sales in Company History, Extending Record Growth in Second Quarter 2026 Yahoo Finance · 13 Aug 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | 10% | P - Purchase | 103,684 | $2,169,394 |
| 2026-08-12 | Smolyansky Edward | 10% | S - Sale | 110,000 | $2,914,585 |
| 2026-05-15 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD P | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | 49,000 | $1,230,302 | |
| 2026-05-15 | DIVISADERO STREET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | 165,045 | $4,200,968 | |
| 2026-05-15 | ZOLEZZI WILLIAM | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | 165,045 | $4,200,968 | |
| 2026-05-14 | GROUPE DANONE | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | 3,454,756 | $89,823,656 | |
| 2026-04-20 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | 15,000 | $397,500 | |
| 2026-03-27 | HANSON ERIC A | Chief Financial Officer | 743 | $13,597 | |
| 2026-03-27 | HANSON ERIC A | Chief Financial Officer | 743 | · | |
| 2026-03-19 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD P | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | 14,353 | $255,053 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Diana Harshbarger | Republican | sell | 50K–100K |
| 2026-08-02 | Diana Harshbarger | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-03-30 | Alan Armstrong | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $24.95 | -3.4% | · | $966 | -3.4% |
| 2 months | $23.77 | +1.4% | · | $1,014 | +1.4% |
| 3 months | $20.95 | +15.0% | · | $1,150 | +15.0% |
| 6 months | $22.96 | +5.0% | · | $1,050 | +5.0% |
| 1 year | $25.00 | -3.6% | · | $964 | -3.6% |
| 2 years | $13.03 | +85.0% | · | $1,850 | +85.0% |
| 3 years | $6.50 | +270.8% | · | $3,708 | +270.8% |
| 5 years | $5.40 | +346.3% | · | $4,463 | +346.3% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever LWAY does next, these words stay.
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