Kier Group plc KIE.L

The investor read · the season, not the day

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

• Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
• Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 133.9%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
• Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
• Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
• Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

KIE.L trades on LSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.