Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Innoviva, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $20.96. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 118 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 118 days
Price at the screen
$20.96
Valuation
4.86 trailing · 9.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.96%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
35.83%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 35.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.13%
Below 5%
5.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +81% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Royalties on everyday breathing meds at a bargain price
Picture someone reaching for their inhaler on a bad air day in any city. Innoviva sits behind two of the main treatments, collecting a slice of every sale without making or marketing a pill itself. That setup delivers 120 percent profit margins and 51 percent return on equity while revenue still climbs 11 percent. At 9.8 times forward earnings the shares trade well below our $36.54 fair value against the current $21.71 price, giving a 68 percent margin of safety on paper.
The royalty model keeps costs low and cash flow steady, which explains why four analysts still see a median target near $39. Ethical screens clear without issue, so nothing blocks ownership on principle. The business simply converts existing drug sales into high returns with minimal overhead.
Dependence on a handful of respiratory products leaves the moat unproven and open to patent or competition shocks. Cyclical healthcare spending and any drop in partner sales could hit the royalty line fast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
INVA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-08-02Markdown · changed$21.71-4.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-07-18Distribution$22.74+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-07-03Distribution$22.74+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$22.74Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
