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The Screen · Financials · Specialty Business Services
Global Payments
GPN · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $23.0B · 26,000 employees
Global Payments Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
87.02 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Global Payments holds its Markdown at $87.02. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$87.02
Valuation
41.24 trailing · 5.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 37% discount to our $118.75 fair value, weak competitive moat, 68.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Global Payments draws the buy ratings yet fails us
Every time a shop takes a card or a customer pays online, Global Payments sits in the middle handling the flow. The stock trades at a forward multiple of just 4.8 times and revenue is up 63 percent, so the Street has a buy rating and an $82 target. We pass anyway.
The business shows a negative profit margin of 8 percent, return on equity of only 3 percent and a weak moat. More importantly it fails our ethical screen on business activity grounds, and that alone keeps us out regardless of the apparent discount to our own $102.50 fair value.
Risk sits in the combination of thin returns, limited competitive edge and the ethical flag that will not go away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GPN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markup$93.49+6.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$87.46+31.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 31.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-18Accumulation$66.32+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-03Accumulation$66.32+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$66.32Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
