NAS10031,283+0.66%S&P7,829+0.71%GOLD$4,200+1.03%BTC$85,499−0.34%VIX15.03−3.16%live tape · as of 19:04 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
GOOS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $344M
Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
7.46 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 18 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 19:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 7.46 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 12.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price7.46 USD
Fair value12.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-31Read Markdown9.78-23.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution9.78-23.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.46. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$7.46
Valuation
46.63 trailing · 9.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
81.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 81.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
42.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 42.5% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Canada Goose's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 82% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 61% discount to our $12.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 17.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 60.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 9.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $12.00, below where it trades today. The weak moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GOOS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$7.46-23.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 23.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-08-31Markdown$9.78+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-31Markdown · changed$9.78+0.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Distribution$9.78+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Distribution$9.78+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$9.78Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.